Friday, November 19, 2004

Friday Investment Thoughts and Questions

-If you understand how the Kmart-Sears merger is going to create a company that can compete with Wal-Mart, Kohls, Target, Home Depot, etc. Please let me know. I just don't get it, two bad retailers, with extremely strong competitors combine and both the stock of the acquiring company and the target both rise? I have been looking into it and I may write a longer post, but right now, this makes no sense to me. Seriously, drop me an e-mail at timothyb[at]timothyburger.com if you have some good thoughts.

-Are American leaders trying to talk down the dollar? Earlier this week Treasury Secretary John Snow was talking it down, and today Greenspan said:
""Current-account imbalances, per se, need not be a problem, but cumulative deficits, which result in a marked decline of a country's net international investment position -- as is occurring in the United States -- raise more complex issues," said the Fed chairman." -WSJ

-Congress considers approving a massive $800 billion increase in the debt limit, bringing the limit to $8.134 trillion. Nothing quite like raising the limit on your credit card instead of controlling your spending, any guesses on how this will end. Add this to the weak dollar story, and consider buying non-dollar assets.

-I have urged shorting Google for the past couple of weeks, I now drop that recommendation. Since I made that recommendation Google is down almost $35 per share. If you are foolish enough to invest based on what you read on this page, you made some nice money on that short, take your winnings and go home. Google is probably still overvalued, and the price could drop more, but it could snap back up just as easily.

-Keep watching Merck, somehow the stock went up this week on a negative New York Times and 60 minutes stories. The bad news may be priced into the stock, we will see.

Timothy Burger

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