Kerry vs. Biotech

Ever wonder who loses if Kerry wins? Two of the biggest losers would be the biotech and pharmaceutical industries. A president Kerry results in the elimination of profits in pharma and biotech, ending the incentive for innovation, and eventually virtually eliminating innovation in medicine, literally ending the improvement of quality of life that has driven human progress since the birth of modern medicine.

So how do you make money on this? The easiest way for most people is by buying the Ishare biotech fund IBB. Just take a look at how biotech has traded vs. The expectation that Bush wins the election, the two are virtually tied to each other. Since early August Bush has been on a tear, after his post convention bounce Tradesports members currently show Bush at 62.5 and IBB is trading just under 70, still well below it's April peak, but up nicely from it's early August lows.

A Bush win continues to allow biotech to profit, and since there is more venture capital money floating around since the peak of the bubble, you would expect any decent biotech idea to attract funding. Since biotech really makes money on big innovation, the outlook is great, as long as pharmaceutical firms stay in business.

If Kerry's campaign continues to flounder, buying now could make money in IBB or any of the big biotech firms, AMGN, DNA, BIIB, etc. However, Kerry will probably rally in the next two months before Bush wins on Nov. 2, a Kerry rally should kill biotech, and provide a nice opportunity to buy firms that will rally on a Bush win.