A Couple of Thoughts

Less than 54 days left before the fall campaign is over, this is what I am thinking:

Bush over Kerry by two to five points in the popular vote. Anti-Iraq/War on Terror rhetoric was a loser for Dean in the Democrat primaries. If the Dems won't bite on that, the general public isn't either. Kerry has been all over the map and has no plan for the future. Bush has dealt with a lot in the past four years, most notably 9-11 and the end of one of the biggest speculative bubbles in history, he has dealt with those challenges well and I think the American people will realize that.

Here in Kansas, Dennis Moore over Kris Kobach by five to ten points. Kobach holds views that are so far to the right most Republicans are uncomfortable with him. Moore will count on that, and that is why he is underestimating Kobach. Poll numbers will scare Moore into action sometime in early October, once voters learn more about Kobach they will give Moore a nice victory and ensure that he holds the KS-3 seat for as long as he would like.

Democrats will pick up at least one Legislative seat in Johnson County. Kobach supported divisive candidates at all levels during the August primary. The party is divided, the state party doesn't have the money to save us, the governor has the money to help her troops, Dems pick up one, setting up interesting Republican leadership races in Nov. and Jan.